Short version: A breakeven (BE) is the score a player needs in their next round to keep their current price. Score above it, you earn cash. Score below it, you lose cash. BEs are driven by a three-round rolling average, which is why they jump when a big old score rolls off. Mastering BEs is how you build cash — and cash is how you build the team that wins rank.
What is a breakeven in NRL SuperCoach?
A breakeven is the exact score a player needs in their next game to maintain their current price. It's the single most important number for any Classic SuperCoach coach, because every trade decision and every cash-generation move traces back to it. If the player scores above their BE, their price goes up. If they score below, their price goes down. That's the whole game.
Every player has a new breakeven every round. The BE updates the moment the rolling average moves — which is after every completed match. So by Tuesday morning, the whole league has a fresh set of breakevens, and that's when trade planning really begins.
The NRL SuperCoach breakeven formula
The official formula is a touch more complex, but this is the essence:
That "magic number" is a seasonal constant SuperCoach uses to convert points into dollars. It shifts subtly across the season but always sits around the same ballpark. The important part isn't the arithmetic — it's what the formula shows you: a player's BE depends on the last two scores on record, not the whole season.
That's why BEs swing so hard. A player coming off two 90s will have a brutally high BE because the game assumes they'll keep scoring 90s. A player coming off two 30s will have a BE near zero because the game assumes they've cratered. Whichever is right, the BE just reflects it.
Why breakevens change every week
Every round, a new score enters the rolling window and an old score drops out. If the dropping score was low, the average moves up and the BE falls. If the dropping score was high, the average moves down and the BE jumps. Simple in theory, but it creates the biggest trap in SuperCoach: the BE cliff.
The BE cliff
A BE cliff is when a player's ceiling score rolls out of the three-round window. Imagine a premium who dropped a 150 three weeks ago. Until now, that 150 was buoying their average, which meant a forgiving BE. This week, the 150 is gone. The game suddenly "needs" 50+ points to replace it — and the BE jumps 60 or 70 points overnight.
Coaches who don't see the cliff coming sell the player the week after the big BE arrives, when the price has already dropped. That's how you burn trades.
How to read a breakeven in a trade
A BE in isolation is just a number. What matters is the BE compared to what the player is actually going to score. That means every trade decision is the same mental calculation:
- What's the BE?
- What's the three-round average?
- What's the realistic projection for next round (fixture, minutes, role)?
- Is projection comfortably above BE? Hold. Is it below? Sell.
For premiums, the gap you want is small — 10 to 20 points above BE is a healthy hold. For cash cows, you want BE well below average (ideally under 20 for a lock cash week). And when BE creeps above the average by more than 15 points, that's usually the sell window opening.
Common breakeven traps
Trap 1: trading in a high-priced player with a high BE
New coaches love to trade in premiums based on name recognition. But if a premium's BE is 90 and their last three scores are 60, 65, 70, you're trading into a falling price — locking in a loss before the first round plays. Always check BE before buying.
Trap 2: holding a cash cow past the peak
The opposite mistake. Your cheapie has made $200k. Their BE jumps to 60. Their projection is 45. You hold because "they're scoring well" — but the price is about to drop. The moment BE exceeds projection, the cow is done. Sell.
Trap 3: panic selling a negative BE
A negative breakeven means the player is guaranteed to earn money even if they score zero. For a premium who just had a bad week, that's a buy signal, not a sell. Negative BE = priced under value = the market is wrong. Patience.
Tools for tracking breakevens
The official SuperCoach app gives you the current-round BE. What it doesn't give you is a forward projection — the next 2–3 rounds of BEs so you can see the cliff coming. That's the entire reason we built a BE projector for the Such Is Fantasy Tools page. Punch in any player, see their next three BEs, and trade around the cliff instead of into it.
The projector updates after every round and overlays projection on top of BE so the buy/sell signal is one glance. It's free.
Breakevens in Draft vs Classic
Breakevens only apply to Classic SuperCoach, because only Classic has prices. Draft leagues don't have a salary cap and don't move player values week-to-week — draft trades are negotiated based on projected points and positional scarcity, not dollars. If you're playing Draft, you can safely ignore BEs entirely and focus on projection.
(If you're wondering which format suits you, we've broken that down in our Draft vs Classic comparison.)
Frequently asked questions
What does breakeven mean in NRL SuperCoach?
A breakeven in NRL SuperCoach is the score a player needs in their next round to maintain their current price. Score above the breakeven and the player gains cash. Score below it and the player loses cash. Every player has a new breakeven every week.
How is breakeven calculated in SuperCoach?
SuperCoach uses a rolling three-game average to set price. The breakeven is roughly (3 × magic number × current price ÷ magic number) minus the sum of the last two scores. It's the score required to keep the three-round rolling average equal to the price the player is currently valued at.
What's a good breakeven to trade into?
For a cash cow, aim for a breakeven below 20 — that's a near-guaranteed cash week. For a premium, a breakeven under their three-round average minus 15 is a buy signal. Avoid trading into any player whose breakeven is more than 15 points above their season average unless you have strong reason to expect a ceiling score.
Why did my player's breakeven jump 100 points in one week?
Breakevens jump hard when an old ceiling score drops out of the three-round average. If a player dropped a 150 three weeks ago and it's now rolling off the average, the system needs them to replace those points — so the breakeven spikes. This is called a BE cliff and it's the single biggest reason premiums get sold at the wrong time.
Should I trade out a player with a negative breakeven?
No. A negative breakeven means the player is guaranteed to gain cash even if they score zero. For cash cows this is a hold signal. For premiums, a negative BE means they're underpriced and about to rise, which is the opposite of a sell trigger.
Do breakevens work the same in Draft and Classic SuperCoach?
No. Breakevens only exist in Classic SuperCoach because only Classic has salary-cap prices that move weekly. Draft leagues have no prices and no BEs — every pick is worth the same in draft, and trade value is about points output and positional scarcity, not cash generation.
What's the difference between a breakeven and a projected score?
Breakeven is the score a player needs to maintain price. Projected score is a separate estimate of what they're likely to score. A player is a buy when projected score is meaningfully higher than breakeven, and a sell when projected is meaningfully lower.
How do I use a breakeven calculator?
A breakeven calculator lets you forecast the next few weeks of BEs for a player based on their recent scores, so you can see when they'll hit a BE cliff before it happens. The Such Is Fantasy BE projector is free on the Tools page and updates automatically each round.